Unexpected rise of level by some teams (Serbia 06, USA 08, Korea 12)

  • I was astonished by these three teams that unexpectedly rose their levels.


    -Serbia didn't play well till the WCH 06. I remember them playing without stability two months before at the WGP qualification (even if a clue back then was them beating Turkey at the tie break). At WCH they beat Poland, Turkey, Cuba and twice Italy. They took a set Brazil.
    -USA wasn't really an elite team in the 2005-2008 period. I remember them losing against the top teams. They didn't qualify for the WGP 06 and 07 and fared quite badly at the 08 WGP. But they rose their level at the Olympics.
    -Korea is a real surprise. I mean: they beat China at the 2010 WCH, but at the last WC and at WGP they were quite disastrous. Now they beat Brazil 3-0, Serbia and Italy 3-1, lost just at the tie break with China and Turkey.


    It was possible in your opinion to predict that rise? Can you predict which team could possibly surprise us in the future?


    Other teams are more gradual in their rise (Thailand and Germany for example).

  • I would not call it "rise of level" but perfect preparation and using what they have in the best possible way.
    Serbia showed good signs since 2005, they had very good players even though none of them was a big star back then, and in 2006 WCH, they finally got their individual talents together into a well prepared team performance, and the underdog role might have helped them as well.
    USA in 2008 benefited from the comeback of Logan Tom, and it's another example for perfect preparation. It doesn't matter how the team performs in WGP, OG is all that matters in such years. Lang Ping used the years 2005-2007 to find the best possible players, and until OG she had found them and prepared them perfectly.
    Korea always had several good players, but in the past they never got them all together at the same time. Now they have Kim YK as superstar supported by a bunch of good players, and they have been able to show their best possible performance against Brazil and Italy. Their task for the future will be to stabilize that performance and find a few more good players because their bench is quite weak, the only positions where they can change players are setter and Opp. The 3rd MB did not play at all yet in OG if I remember well, and the backup OHs only can play as reception substitutes but in attack they are significantly weaker than Kim and Han.


    I find it impossible to predict the future performance of teams because it depends on many factors (injuries, players' shapes, coaching), but it has been a general trend in the last years that many teams improve their level. There still are a few top teams like USA and Brazil (when they are in best shape), but behind it there are more and more teams that can play on the same level.

  • I believe that Norceca and Asian teams have advantages to prepare themselves to OGs and find out new talents. Their continental championships are easy, there are only 3-4 teams that play in a 'good' level or even less. For example USA doesn't have any problem facing against these teams with their 2nd or even 3rd roster or China and Japan know that they will play semi final at least. They have so many chances to test the 'talented' girls in these competitions such as continental tournaments and mainly WGPs. They know before the OGs that they will participate %99 and that gives them a 'huge' period to prepare themselves for the Olympics and to give experience to 'newbies'. Look at USA and remember how they played in 2009 WGP where they finished 9th with Akınradewo, Larson, Harmotto, Thompson,Richards, Davis included. They used that GP to prepare this new girls to 2012 Olympics and now Harmotto, Larson, Akınradewo and Davis are in the starting 7 in Olympics. They did the same just before the 2008 Olympics.


    On the other hand, European teams' road to Olympics are much harder and even the top teams don't feel comfortable about participating to OG. Most of them get this chance just before the OG( less than 1 year). And participating to WGP isn't as easy as it is for USA or other Asian teams. Even when they get that chance they try to use this WGP to finish as much as higher to get more points in World rankings that makes the road to Olympics 'comfortable' for them. As you see even Italy and Russia couldn't 'renew' their roster and they can't find young talents(or time) to replace the veterans such as Gioli, Lo Bianco, Piccinini, Sokolova,Gamova,Estes etc.


    Turkey had that chance in WGP2008 and we knew before the tournament that we wouldn't play in Olympics so we gave chance to some young players to devolop their skills. We finished 7th in this competetion but our main players were Seda(22), Naz(17), Gözde(23),Bahar(20), Neriman(20). Now these players have a huge role in today's Turkish NT.


    What I want to say, it is easier for other teams to make some changes in the roster rather than European teams. European teams MUST find a way to give experience to their young players in international level to cope with the teams such as USA, Brazil, China, Japan etc.

  • I've also agree with Matthias, all those teams have gradually rised. Serbia has already had very talented players but the time they started to win was the period their promising players got enough experience in Italian league. Korea still doesn't have stable performance they lost three of 5 preliminary match but won very critical 2 matches (Brasil and Italy) They've already made some surprises against both China and Japan. The most critical gain for them probably Kim's Europe experience which gives her more self-esteem and strong match experience against powerful teams.


    I don't agree about USA, they always have lost power after each olympic cycle due to change of team roster on the other hand they always got good result at 2004,2008 and 2012. As Matthias said, Tom's come back is also crucial.


    In the near future, I would name two teams who can make surprises: Czechs and Bulgarians ;)


    Bulgarians have the same case with Serbia, very talented but young players. Now they all got enough experience by playing top european leagues.


    Czechs have powerful opp and OH+ all-around OH also more than decent MBs. Only problem of them is lack of good setter :down: Their coach is also another strong point.


    These two teams would get medals in next GP since many powerful European teams won't be there. Also next ECH will be really interesting. After OG two big boss of Europe will lose strength a lot (Russia and Italy) we will have many teams which have similar level : Turkey, Serbia, Germany and Poland so Bulgaria and Czech has chance to make some surprises, who knows maybe a medal :whistle:

  • Agree about Czech and Bulgaria, both invested in very good coaches and I hope they will give them the chance to work there long term. Both countries have a lot of tradition (Czech team was very good in the 90s with several medals at ECHs) and after some weaker years are now back among the best in Europe. Only one thing lacks in both teams: one or two older, experienced players to lead the young talents.


    As for next ECH, Germany will most probably play with the best players we have available because it's the home tournament and we want another medal there. As you say, Russia and Italy will be unpredictable with new teams, and there are many other teams on a very balanced level.

  • I think, in Bulgaria; Strashmira, Yaneva and Filipova has older/experienced player roles but it is true that Czech lacks of this element. :whistle:

  • I think, in Bulgaria; Strashmira, Yaneva and Filipova has older/experienced player roles but it is true that Czech lacks of this element. :whistle:

    Yaneva and the two Filipovas certainly are experienced players, but I'm not sure if they are the type of players who can lead a team...but yeah, Bulgaria is better off than Czech in that element.

  • Could it be that also the surprise factor plays an important role? I mean nobody thought that Serbia would play like that in 2006 so maybe the other teams didn't prepare adequately the match against it.


    About Korea, now I remember that it has raised some eyebrows when at the 2009 W.G. Champions Cup took Italy to tie break, beat China 3-0 at the 2010 WCH, took Brazil to tie break at the last year World Cup. So maybe it wasn't that unexpected about Korea, there were some clues, but still at this Olympics they surprised me very much. What Korea has absolutely to find is major continuity.

  • If you have a player, who is just dominating, you ride them as far as you can. YK Kim has performed very well in this tournament. But she needs help to do it from her teammates. When they play well, they are tough.


    In my ranking based on sets won, points ratio and position in the ranking in the last year (Jan 2011 to now), South Korea started at 15, #12 after the World Cup, got to #10 in May 2012, dropped down to #13 before the tournament. Right now they are #11 and with a couple of set wins over Japan be #10. Their score (228.307) is still only less than half of what the US score (#2 in my ranking) is (486.112). Set wins and points ratio and beating international competitors helps you improve.


    South Korea must push its best players to leave Korea to improve. Just as Japan must do with their women's team as well.

  • South Korea must push its best players to leave Korea to improve. Just as Japan must do with their women's team as well.

    I don't think this is necessarily true. There is a belief on this forum that Kim somehow developed her talent in one season in Turkey which couldn't be further from the truth. She arrived in Fenerbache with the ability and talent that she's always had, it was just the first opportunity for people outside of Asia or who did not follow the Korean NT to see her play and recognize her talent. Korea doesn't need to push its players to leave Korea, they need to find more players with the physical capabilities of Kim and I think they've finally been able to accomplish that with an average height of 1.86 for their starting lineup for this tournament.


    Look at China. None of their players play outside of China and besides the recent involvement of a few top foreign players, they've been relatively closed off yet their able to compete with the rest of the world because they are able to consistently produce players with the physical stature of their Euro/American counterparts.

  • I don't think this is necessarily true. There is a belief on this forum that Kim somehow developed her talent in one season in Turkey which couldn't be further from the truth. She arrived in Fenerbache with the ability and talent that she's always had, it was just the first opportunity for people outside of Asia or who did not follow the Korean NT to see her play and recognize her talent. Korea doesn't need to push its players to leave Korea, they need to find more players with the physical capabilities of Kim and I think they've finally been able to accomplish that with an average height of 1.86 for their starting lineup for this tournament.


    Look at China. None of their players play outside of China and besides the recent involvement of a few top foreign players, they've been relatively closed off yet their able to compete with the rest of the world because they are able to consistently produce players with the physical stature of their Euro/American counterparts.


    2 years ago for the World Championship, Japanese TV previewed teams and groups. YK Kim was playing in Japan and they promoted her as the once in 100-year player for South Korea. I am not saying that she is not good. She is at such a high level, that her teammates have to improve against tougher competition, which is generally in European club competitions. This higher level of competition would help the South Korean national team.


    In my mind, they did pull some upsets, but with YK Kim being such a big part of the team with the following advanced stats:
    YK Kim (team total) =%
    6.65 sets won (14.33) = 46.4%
    683 possessions (pass, dig, ace, service error, block, spikes, sets) (1271) = 53.7%
    352 spike attempts (932) = 37.7%
    164 kills-43 errors= 121 spiking points =34.4% of spikes are kills
    14 blocks, 7 aces, 10 service errors
    70 digs
    69.3% excellent serve receive


    Saori Kimura as a comparison
    Saori Kimura (team total) = %
    3.95 sets won (13.92) = 28.3%
    647 possessions (1305) = 49.5%
    308 spike attempts (955) = 32.2%
    124 kills-42 errors = 82 spiking points = 26.6% of spikes are kills
    5 blocks, 2 aces, 5 service errors
    83 digs
    67.4% excellent serve receive


    I like Saori, but YK Kim is just so much better.

  • is this data from the 2010 world championships?