Olympic Games - Brazil 2016 (qualification process)

  • Germany will surely be dangerous given the shape of their main go-to player Kozuch which produces on average about 18 points per game for Casalmaggiore with high effectivity. I cannot remember when or whether she´s been in equivalent shape in parallel to her contemporary at any stage in the past. We might also weigh in the common pattern that she usually raises her game by a considerable amount while representing Germany in comparison to club level. However, the fruits of this might in some part be restrained by the fact both Furst and Brinkers shape pretty much reached a new bottom.

    I think the main factor for German team again can be the motivation. The core of the team has been talking for ages about their dream to play Olympics once and this is the last chance for them, in 4 years Weiss, Kozuch, Beier, Brinker, Ssuschke and Fürst won't be around anymore or at least will be way past their prime. The question will be how much of that motivation they can actually turn into good performance. Brinker had her best NT summer ever but as soon as she arrived in her club all of it disappeared into nothingness. With Fürst it's a different story, IMO she simply doesn't play enough in Eczacibasi to assess her shape. Basically she plays one CL match every two weeks and maybe once a month in league, and all that in a team that doesn't function as a whole. I hope for a pleasant surprise...


    Kozuch played this good back in 2011 in the ECH in Serbia

    Yes, but back then she played this good for 2 weeks, now she's been playing this good for about 2 months.

  • Same thing for Croatia, their are "weakest" team in pool but again can suprised everyone.


    For some player this is maybe last performance in NT : Poljak, Jerkov, Barun and Topić. Jerkov and Poljak will not give 100% in their performance, they will give 200% performance.


    We saw 100 times that Fabris played great in Seria A, but in NT is diffrent player. So no one knows how she will perform.


    But as always, We can't say how good Cro will play because of our setter. Maybe disaster, maybe great, like against Russia on last ECH or like against Belarus on last ECH. :thumbdown: But again without Jerkov, and now without Senna.


    Like I said before, every team in Ankara has chance to go in Rio.

  • Like I said before, every team in Ankara has chance to go in Rio.

    I don't quite agree. Let's say every team has a chance to go to Japan, but in order to get the direct ticket, i.e. win the Ankara tournament, you can allow yourself just one defeat, and that must be in pool play. IMO the main candidate for the direct ticket is Russia because under normal circumstances they are the best team in Europe. But even the best team in Europe can have a bad day every once in a while, and if that happens in semifinal or final, they'll have to do detention in Japan in May/June. Other teams with chances for the direct ticket for me are Turkey if they manage to play their A game and use home advantage, Italy if they can play all matches with the best seven and those seven are in best shape and maybe the Netherlands if they play the tournament of their lives until semifinal and the match of their lives in final. Any other winner of the tournament would be a sensation for me, but I think Germany and Poland might at least have a small chance for a top 3 finish (I'm not at all convinced by Polish team in the last years so I'm sceptical). For me Belgium and Croatia are the outsiders, they might break the neck of some other team but I just don't see them in semifinal...

  • On the other hand, when did the European OQT ever go as expected?


    Looking at the last editions...


    2004:
    1. Germany
    2. Turkey
    3. Italy/Poland


    as compared to 2003 ECH:
    1. Poland
    2. Turkey
    3. Germany
    4. Netherlands


    2008:
    1. Russia
    2. Poland
    3. Serbia/Germany


    as compared to 2007 ECH:
    1. Italy (qualified via World Cup)
    2. Serbia
    3. Russia
    4. Poland


    2012:
    1. Turkey
    2. Poland
    3. Russia/Germany


    as compared to 2011 ECH:
    1. Serbia (lost all matches in OQT then)
    2. Germany
    3. Turkey
    4. Italy (qualified via World Cup)



    Tradition shows that rankings of the respective ECH are hardly ever confirmed 3 months later in OQT...

  • Seriously I don't know why for you Italy and Turkey are such favourites. Italy- Bossetti is injured (is this rumour true?), Del Core doesn't play great lately, Picci is out, DIouf is OK, but not phenomenal. I would say Centoni and De Gennaro are OK lately but other than that without Lo Bianco, Picci I don't see any great players in best shape and just to add Ferreti hasn't been there in a while.


    WIth Turkey, Neriman and Polen are sitting on bench or play bad, Nesli just came back. Gozde is ok, but she also is in the shadow in VB. Maybe MBs are a little bit better.


    And how to compare it to Netherlands where Sloetjes, Buijs and Grotheus are rocking in their teams or with Russia.


    I would say Germany have bigger chances, at least they played with one another some time and it's really great thing in such short training period.

  • In 2012 the tournament was held in May, that was a long time after ECh and a pretty different story. Serbia had basically the entire first lineup injured while for Russia it was the other way around, they performed badly at ECh but had been rising since and should have probably won the tournament and qualified directly for London.
    2008 was not surprising, Russia/Poland/Serbia did not have much between them, Serbia a little behind the two with the absence of Spasojević and Krsmanović compared to the ECh.


    2004 was a big surprise indeed, as I remember, no one thought Germany would qualify.

  • Right, I forgot that in 2012 it was in May...I also didn't mean that Russia winning in 2008 was a surprise, I just meant to say that we must be ready for surprises.


    As for the Dutch team, currently both their liberos are injured and it is very questionable if one of them, let alone both, can play in 2 weeks. And besides that, the team has "only" (I don't mean to diminish it) played a great ECH at home, but has yet to confirm that they really arrived among the top teams.


    As for Italy, I don't see them as big favourites but I would not be stunned if they won. Experience could be the key for them...same for Turkey, adding the home advantage for them.

  • For me NED is :?:
    They played great on last ECH but they had amazing home crowd. Now we will see how good they are.

  • Right, I forgot that in 2012 it was in May...I also didn't mean that Russia winning in 2008 was a surprise, I just meant to say that we must be ready for surprises.


    As for the Dutch team, currently both their liberos are injured and it is very questionable if one of them, let alone both, can play in 2 weeks. And besides that, the team has "only" (I don't mean to diminish it) played a great ECH at home, but has yet to confirm that they really arrived among the top teams.


    As for Italy, I don't see them as big favourites but I would not be stunned if they won. Experience could be the key for them...same for Turkey, adding the home advantage for them.


    I agree.


    I'm really worried about libero-position....Stam and Schoot are both out since 1 or 2 months meanwhile...Schoot is not ready yet..about Stam nothing is known...I have no confidence at all in Knip, at this level..


    Luckily the hitters and mbs are in good shape...but without stable reception it will be really hard.


    I'm very curious what Guidetti will do...probably he will wait until the last moment..Maybe he even calls Kim Renkema at libero-position...

  • I don't think Renkema's backrow skills are any better than Knip's, probably not even equal :S


    Under Vermeulen, Oosterveld played as libero...but she was a disaster...


    Ok, I can't find a solution....hopefully Guidetti will :whistle:

  • I still think Knip is the most likely solution in case both Stam and Schoot can't play. She probably won't be able to play on the same level, but it's better than taking someone who's not familiar with the position. In 2008 Germany played OQT with Heike Beier as libero because Tzscherlich was injured and it didn't work too great...in reception she did fine but in defense she just was not like a libero as far as I remember.

  • Italy has enough first class liberos for everybody in Europe (it's really a waste), so let's make some exchanges of players, a libero for a good attacking OH :lol:


    You are totally right...I checked lately Serie A-rosters and indeed...each team in top 8 has a great libero....unbelievable... :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:


    Ok, exchange: Pietersen for De Gennaro ??? :D

  • To me, Russia is the clear favourite. Fetisova and Zaryazhko are pretty good MB duo. Scherban has been playing better than she has ever played before. Malova will be one of the best libero in Ankara. The result of TUR-NED match will decide the other finalist next to RUS since I believe both of these teams can beat ITA who will most probably be the other semifinalist.


    I don't expect any big surprise from GER since their biggest strengths were Fürst and Guidetti. Fürst is not playing much as Matthias mentioned before, and whenever she plays she did not perform well. In the absence of Guidetti, GER is not more than a mediocre team in my opinion. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if CRO would beat them. :whistle:


    For ITA, it is gambling without any logic behind it. European league or GP could be used for giving experience to Egonu, Danesi, Orro and Guerra. They are already getting experience by consistently playing one of the best league in the world. I could understand if it was Belgium, Netherlands or Germany which plays with a very small pool of players but ITA has many players which is experienced on high level and can select better players than those youngsters. :S


    POL is a mess, I still wonder if they would use again two Opps with Berenika and Skowronska, which worked well 4 years ago again in Ankara. I find Wolosz quite overrated, she is not even close to Skorupa's level and I don't think she is good at handling bad reception :rolleyes: I don't see much chance for POL to reach semis unles Okuniewska would show unexpectedly good performance.

  • I don't expect any big surprise from GER since their biggest strengths were Fürst and Guidetti. Fürst is not playing much as Matthias mentioned before, and whenever she plays she did not perform well. In the absence of Guidetti, GER is not more than a mediocre team in my opinion. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if CRO would beat them. :whistle:

    You forgot one strength: motivation and team spirit (ok, that makes even two :D ), and those were not only related to Guidetti. In ECH the team showed that they can play well also without him, remember how close the QF against Turkey was. I'm not too convinced with Koslowski as head coach, but so far he chose the right players, and I am very convinced of his assistant Andi Vollmer. For several seasons now he managed to achieve very good results in league with teams that had only mediocre players thanks to his coaching skills and excellent tactical preparations. I hope he can do the same in NT.


    One more thing distinguishes this tournament from the past ones: this year no team can be relaxed with the knowledge they will surely get another chance thanks to world ranking (as it was for Serbia 4 years ago) because anyone who wants to go to Rio MUST finish top 3 here.

  • The competition will be held in Turkey, so Turkey is the biggest favorite. Turkish NT is pretty experienced team and I'm sure they will play their best at the all important event. Turkish fans will surely make hell out there for everyone else. That can be very important in crucial moments of the tournament. I hope Russian NT will avoid playing Turkey until the final and at least get into the last qualification opportunity.