Germany - VBL 1. Bundesliga 2016/17

  • After two exciting five set thrillers, today we had pure dominance by Stuttgart :white:


    Stuttgart - Dresden 3:0 (17, 19, 16)
    http://live.volleyball-bundesliga.de/2016-17/Women/&2525.pdf
    MVP: Valerie Nichol / Liz McMahon


    Dresden never arrived in the game, they were weak in all elements. Alex Waibl tried a different line-up in every set, in 3rd even Cooper played despite her injury (which didn't seem to affect her game anyway :whistle: ), but nothing worked. Stuttgart with Van Daelen and Pettke instead of Whitney and Grant today, and even though individually the stats of most players don't look any impressive, it was a very one-sided match for Stuttgart.


    So the final series starting on Wednesday is Schwerin vs Stuttgart as expected :super:

  • Yes, we have now the final series composed as expected by most familiar with it, Schwerin vs. Stuttgart. But while volleyball magazine declared Stuttgart as championship favorite at begin of season, Schwerin not only won the league round and has now a considerable advantage earned that way, overall Schwerin has to be considered as favorite now. Already on Wednesday our team Stuttgart has to be in Schwerins Palmberg hall, 800 km away, and if Schwerin doesn't make a serious mistake, they should win their 11th (!) championship title in Bundesliga. Stuttgart has only a chance, if they play like today in at least three of five matches and can exploit a week day of Schwerin in their hall.

  • Dresden's lack of substitutes is killing them today. Schwabe and Rolfzen get nothing right in attack and Strumilo gets aced from every serve in her direction. McMahon alone can't do it all...


    Yes, IMHO it was totally irresponsible by Waibl, to let Strumilo receive. Our servers could easily take her out than...

  • The first article regarding this final series Schwerin vs. Stuttgart I have found today:


    http://www.nnn.de/regionales/n…id16606161.html?nojs=true


    The essential things in this article are in short: they have a keen demand for their (11th!) championship title, after failing to win any title since championship 2013. There is a lot of pressure for them right now, because since now also federal head coach Koslowski is there in charge (2013 after winning their last title), Schwerin didn't win any title. (especially the last two seasons they were kicked out in the semis by Stuttgart) At last they lost the DVV cup final 2017 against Stuttgart and lost in the semis to now second time CEV challenge cup winners Bursa, but they know, they can beat everyone (indeed they won all pairings with Dresden and Potsdam this season) and especially Stuttgart too (they won both league round pairings, tie-break in Stuttgart, in straight sets in Schwerin).


    They consider their team as very strong this season (it is) and consider it as deserved, to win their 11th championship title (it would be of course).


    I pronounce these statements, because in the past there were sometimes press releases that arrogant, that it couldn't hardly be increased. Now they have a realistic posture.


    Indeed, they are considered like "defenders" as record holding champions with already 10 titles since German unity, while Stuttgart is playing just it's third final series and never winning before. Stuttgart will consider themselves as hunters, if they fail to win the title, it is like "what a pity, let us try next time again" (and Dresden and Schwerin know, we will ride another rather serious attack next season).


    On the other hand, especially Koslowski feels a LOT of pressure: should Stuttgart somehow manage to pull off a surprise in the finals, he can face serious consequences. Already last year some people demanded publicly to dismiss him as head coach, after losing in the semis against Stuttgart...

  • Some more voices regarding the finals from Stuttgart: every team member wants now the title and the triple connected with, playing the third time in the row the finals. They hope for an advantage in mind, because every important match was won by Stuttgart against Schwerin the last years.


    On the other hand we may face also serious consequences by success: currently we can't afford financially a participation in CL group phase, if we win the championship. Our budget is just too low and we carry several 100.000 Euro debt with us, one of those resulting from first and so far only CL participation 2016. The budget is just 1.0 million Euro and doesn't allow for the expensive additional costs for participating in the CL. Opposed to that, Schwerin and Dresden have budgets of 1.5 to 1.6 million Euro and no debt.


    So especially if Stuttgart wins the championship this would create a critical moment: if no additional sponsor could be found, financing us those roughly 100.000 Euro additional costs, we have to declare not to participate in this extreme-elite competition. And that would be very bad for VBL, because neither Schwerin nor Dresden would be eligible for participating instead of us (Alba Blaj from Romania would gain that one again, like the last time, when Sopot from Poland didn't participate), they could only take qualification tournament for CL, with low chances to reach the group phase (usually, as happened 2017 season, the teams of Turkey, Russia, Italy and Poland will grab those 4 slots). That would cost chances to get points for the VBL in total in this season 2018 for European cups. So we would make angry both the VBL and the CEV (which is okay from their point of view), while having no standing at all in this two federations, we could pay fines to both in this case. It would not help, that the German volleyball federation DVV has some sympathy for us for having a federal academy both for volleyball and beach volleyball...

  • Manuel Rieke does not renew his contract with Köpenick. They have an even smaller budget than before for next season and made him an offer according to that but he turned it down, officially to spend more time with his family.


    If they can't even afford a young German coach with very little experience, I wonder who they'll get as coach and even more so as players :white:

  • Köpenick already told, that they have once again a very low budget regarding what's needed to stay in first league, it seems, they didn't get sufficient more sponsor money...


    Tomorrow the final series Schwerin vs. Stuttgart starts, it will be interesting, how this first match of best of five series evolves.

  • Today, 19.00 CET, live on http://www.vbl.tv as full production: the first final match Schwerin vs Stuttgart :super:


    IMO the series is impossible to predict. In the previous years there has always been a favourite (mostly Dresden), this year it's really 50-50 for me. In theory Schwerin has a deeper bench but we saw the opposite in the Cup final when Stuttgart's backup setter made the difference eventually. So anything can happen in the series I think...

  • I think now, Schwerin will win in four sets. Their advantage after taking the close third set 27:25 and 2:1 sets lead is too big now, playing at home, better rested and prepared players...

  • By the way, the betting sites have all quotes of about 1.35 for Schwerin and just below 3 for Stuttgart, a clear indication, that most expect the victory by the hosts. This is unchanged since the match started.

  • As expected after the third set Schwerin wins in 4. That doesn't mean too much of course, we have much better chances in Stuttgart on Saturday for several reasons but have also to win already, to prevent an early end of final series.

  • The only evident differences in statistics were in attack (Schwerin better with 37 to 35 % efficiency and 7 direct points more in total) and errors (surprisingly 7 more by Schwerin), which lead to nearly no difference in point sums over all sets (96 to 95). So as seen, the third set was very decisive. IMHO Renata Sandor gets a little too often blocked, as it was also in the last semi against Dresden. If this is more a setter or her issue, I can't tell to be honest.

  • I think the setter was their problem today. She was really off, and she was replaced but the coach brought her back in. And her sets to Mejeklova ( sorry I can't spell her name) especially from the back row were terrible. Mejeklova had to choice but to attack a air ball. The other setter Kocar is more mature e does a better job, I don't know why he keeps her on the bench.

    The only evident differences in statistics were in attack (Schwerin better with 37 to 35 % efficiency and 7 direct points more in total) and errors (surprisingly 7 more by Schwerin), which lead to nearly no difference in point sums over all sets (96 to 95). So as seen, the third set was very decisive. IMHO Renata Sandor gets a little too often blocked, as it was also in the last semi against Dresden. If this is more a setter or her issue, I can't tell to be honest.

  • Schwerin - Stuttgart 3:1 (25:22 19:25 27:25 25:23)
    http://live.volleyball-bundesliga.de/2016-17/Women/&2528.pdf
    MVP: Louisa Lippmann / Jennifer Pettke


    I haven't watched the match so I can't say much. After spending the whole season on bench Jennifer Pettke now won the place of Nia Grant and seems to do a good job. Both teams overall with balanced stats, only the attack % of Jennifer Geerties and the usual OPP-problem of Stuttgart stand out negatively.


    @rbdfabio: I suppose your euphoria for Karmen Kocar comes from the Cup final where she definitely played the match of her life. Other than that she is a very average setter IMO, I was very surprised before the season that Stuttgart signed her. On a normal day Valerie Nichol is one class better than Kocar, however I have to say last year Nichol was a big revelation but I think this season she didn't make much progress anymore, she's still very good but IMO not better than a year ago.


    Next match on Saturday in Stuttgart.

  • Why finances DOES matter, but don't rule alone: generally speaking, regarding soft factors, Stuttgart is currently the most attractive location for good players in German league: a very well and inviting environment with the help of all around, sponsors, spectators, fans, even head coach. Traditionally in the rich city of Stuttgart and it's rich region around unpaid help is much more widespread than for example in also rich Dresden or less rich Schwerin. It's hard to tell, how much this makes in numbers, but I guess, we have a financial plus equivalent of roundabout 100.000 to 300.000 Euro this way compared to the both teams of Dresden and Schwerin, which have a strong financial advantage (Stuttgart about 1.0 million budget, Schwerin and Dresden 1.5 to 1.6 million Euro). You can easily see, that this estimated advantage doesn't compensate for their advantage, despite it reduces the gap. Stuttgart would need at least 300.000 Euro more from sponsors, to get really on equal height with the two other teams. The advantage, that Schwerin now features also the federal head coach as club head coach, is more affecting relation Schwerin-Dresden, because Stuttgart can't compete in salary with the other two regarding strong, experienced German nationals like Maren Brinker, who we simply could not pay adequately, despite she played a number of years ago once for us already. So we have also for the roster less money availbable, which results in less (experienced) players and weaker bench players as Schwerin has, especially on the most expensive positions in attack and setting. And the often young and unfinished players we hire, will often leave already after one season: a good example is Kaja Grobelna, who came from Asterix and left already one year later to Lodz, where she impacted greatly - Stuttgarts capability to keep good players is also lower, than the one of Schwerin and Dresden. Dresden was a special case at last, because in the most negative impacting moment main sponsor Telekom left the team despite of the great success they had, and left Dresden with big trouble at roster rebuilding time.


    So we can't afford always the best solutions, especially in replacements and opposites, OHs, setters. This should explain, why Schwerins roster looks a little better in depth; at middles and libero the issue is lower (they get lower salaries than attackers and setters).

  • In an interview with TAG24 Alexander Waibl said that DSC will have not soo much money next season.


    https://www.tag24.de/nachricht…ne-schulden-machen-239307


    Chances are high, that Schwerin can reestablish hegmony in the next few years like 2011 to 2013. Their sponsor pool seems to be more stable.

  • The possible final championship match in Schwerin will take place one day earlier than scheduled so far, on Tuesday, the 2. May, instead of Wednesday, the 3. May. Reason is the second final in men's competition will be on 3. May because of Berlins participation in CL F4 in Rome.


    If Stuttgart manages somehow to enforce this final match (most likely by two home wins on Saturdays 22. and 29. April, while assuming Schwerin will take the second home win as well on Wednesday 26. April), due to the huge travel distance the advantage of Schwerin will increase even more similar than last year in Dresden, when the final match was also taking place earlier due to German national team considerations, because Schwerin will likely fly, what is too expensive for Stuttgart.