2022 FIVB World Championship - POL/SLO

    Updated after First Wednesday match

    Clinched Round of 16 Spots

    Poland

    USA

    France

    Brazil

    Netherlands

    Serbia

    Iran

    Italy

    Japan

    Cuba

    Slovenia

    Argentina

    Turkiye (won 1st set vs. CAN)


    Clinching Scenarios for Round of 16 on Wednesday

    Canada 1 SET WIN over TUR

    Ukraine 1 SET WIN over PUR

    Tunisia 1 SET WIN over SRB

    Germany get in with CAN OR TUN OR UKR 0-3 losses and points lost CAN (-13 to -8, already behind GER), TUN (loss by at least 8 points), UKR (loss by at least 18 points)


    Points ratio may still play a factor if there are 3-0 sweeps

    Ukraine to Germany +17

    Ukraine to Canada +22

    Tunisia to Canada +12

    Tunisia to Germany +7

    Germany to Canada +5

    Updated after 2nd Wednesday match

    Clinched Round of 16 Spots

    Poland

    USA

    France

    Brazil

    Netherlands

    Serbia

    Iran

    Italy

    Japan

    Cuba

    Slovenia

    Argentina

    Turkiye

    Germany


    Clinching Scenarios for Round of 16 on Wednesday

    Ukraine 1 SET WIN over PUR

    Tunisia 1 SET WIN over SRB

    Canada need UKR OR TUN 0-3 LOSS AND PUR/CHN result (5 set better), plus massive points swings

    Puerto Rico/China WIN AND UKR OR TUN 0-3 LOSS, plus massive points swings


    Points ratio may still play a factor if there are 3-0 sweeps

    Ukraine to Canada +34

    Ukraine to Puerto Rico +43

    Ukraine to China +44

    Tunisia to Canada +24

    Tunisia to Puerto Rico +33

    Tunisia to China +34

    Canada to Puerto Rico +9

    Canada to China +10

    Ukrain needs +16 in 3 sets to pass Türkiye.

    My calculation:

    Points ratio for Türkiye:

    gp > 210/186.

    %1 = 1.1290322580645161290322580645161290323


    Ukrain currently has 142 points won and 133 lost, so to top Türkiye's points ratio (assuming Ukrains wins 25-x, 25-y, 25-z)

    gp > (142+75)/%1-133

    %2 = 59.200000000000000000000000000000000001

    Quote from georgez3811

    Anyway who will Arg play against in 1/8?

    As for now, Serbia is the most probable option, there are chances for Italy (they have higher point ratio right now), but there are very different scenarios possible if for some reason Serbia and Italy decide to lose against Tunisia/China sets/points on purpose.


    Italy may have a choice between Cuba-France-Slovenia/Serbia vs Turkey/Ukraine-Slovenia-Serbia/Iran/Netherlands, if Serbia defeats Tunisia 3-0 and the Netherlands doesn't defeat Iran 3-0.

    I know Canada is in process of renovation, but these performances were disappointing. I don't think they are going to achieve anything with such a team. Cuba is already ahead of them in Norceca. On the other hand, it's always good having new contender teams and Türkiye is growing a lot. Well deserved. Also, it's showing that some teams which weren't in VNL would add much more to the competition than the ones that still are there. :whistle:

    Also Argentina seems not only to be out of shape but also has lost its self confidence. Let's see how they'll be playing in the rest of the competition.

    I don't think Italy and Serbia will lose on purpose. Although there is still one spot left, Canada will certainly not go further even if they can grab it.

    Quote from thi_bene666

    I don't think Italy and Serbia will lose on purpose.

    Italy may have a choice between the strongest (if they win) and the weakest (if they lose) playoff draw, so even though I'm not so sure what they'll do, an option for losing it on purpose seems 'reasonable', unless the Netherlands defeats Iran 3-0, then Dutch team may be ahead of France due to point ratio (and play against 3rd-seeded team, when Italy as for now is a favorite to be seeded as #3).


    If Serbia loses against Tunisia, they can get Turkey/Ukraine in 1/8 and Slovenia in 1/2 as the 7th-seeded team. The problem is Italy can lose on purpose as well, so it would make a complete mess in a draw.


    I think that Serbia will defeat Tunisia convincingly, and then Italy will have really difficult choice to make.

    Quote from Realista

    Italy may have a choice between the strongest (if they win) and the weakest (if they lose) playoff draw, so even though I'm not so sure what they'll do, an option for losing it on purpose seems 'reasonable', unless the Netherlands defeats Iran 3-0, then Dutch team may be ahead of France due to point ratio (and play against 3rd-seeded team, when Italy as for now is a favorite to be seeded as #3).


    If Serbia loses against Tunisia, they can get Turkey/Ukraine in 1/8 and Slovenia in 1/2 as the 7th-seeded team. The problem is Italy can lose on purpose as well, so it would make a complete mess in a draw.


    I think that Serbia will defeat Tunisia convincingly, and then Italy will have really difficult choice to make.

    Oh. This format is very interesting, but way too crazy somehow. We have to make some maths and I'm terrible at that, so I prefer to basically just watch the matches and wait. I left this to you guys lol

    Türkiye will be ahead of Netherlands or Iran.

    Cases:

    - If one them cannot win one point (loses 0-3 or 1-3), Türkiye is ahead of that team because the loser would have 5 points

    - If Iran loses in 5sets, Iran is behind Türkiye (6 points each but worse set ratio than Türkiye)

    - If Netherlands loses in 5 sets, then Netherlands is behind Türkiye (6 points each but worse set ratio than Türkiye)


    In summary, the loser cannot pass Türkiye.