2020 Olympic Games - Tokyo (Female)

    Quote from arrekusu

    Weaker (on paper) teams can pull off upsets. That's my takeaway from the men's matches so far.

    Make me look forward to women's matches even more!

    Olympics is such a weird tournament, the favorites don't win most of the time.

    Quote from inc0gnito

    Olympics is such a weird tournament, the favorites don't win most of the time.

    In the women's, post-USSR the clear favourites won during the Cuban reign (92, 96, 00) and Brazil in 08. in 04 and 12 there weren't clear favourites but it wasn't an unexpected result to have China and Brazil win.


    China were also a favourite in 16 and probably expecting a podium finish (although USA and BRA were the biggest favourites); it only looks like they weren't a favourite because they had a terrible group stage (so did Brazil in 12). If you were to guess that China would win gold in 16 before the games started it would have been a reasonable guess (but Brazil and USA were more likely).

    Quote from zhutingfan

    In the women's, post-USSR the clear favourites won during the Cuban reign (92, 96, 00) and Brazil in 08. in 04 and 12 there weren't clear favourites but it wasn't an unexpected result to have China and Brazil win.


    China were also a favourite in 16 and probably expecting a podium finish (although USA and BRA were the biggest favourites); it only looks like they weren't a favourite because they had a terrible group stage (so did Brazil in 12). If you were to guess that China would win gold in 16 before the games started it would have been a reasonable guess (but Brazil and USA were more likely).

    Yeah, to be honest, female OGs are quite predictable in terms of a winner (that doesn't mean these tournaments are predictable on its own in terms of outcome of specific matches), even China in 2004 was a current World Cup/World Grand Prix winner, but due to Zhao injury they weren't as dominant as they probably would be if healthy. China in 2016 had really difficult path for a title, but after all they were current WC winners and WCH finalists. Cuba, Cuba, Cuba, Brazil, Brazil, China, China - not that much of a variety.


    On the other hand, male tournaments are much less predictable, and I guess that's related to the specific of a discipline, so I wouldn't draw analogies from counterpart tournaments. Italy was a team to beat from 1992 to 2000, and failed every team to win a gold, Brazil wasn't the biggest favorite in 2016 as well, USA won World League and then a title in Beijing, and yet it was still considered as an upset that Brazil or Russia didn't win. I just think it's much easier for an upset in male volleyball - female volleyball is much more repetitive (defense etc) and less prone to good day/bad day variable, there's a reason why we don't have these crazy series of wins like Vakifbank or Conegliano had in a male volleyball.

    I don’t know if someone else has said/noticed this before but I was looking at the previous WCH and OG winners and saw that since 2010: the second-placed team at the WCH won the following OG (BRA 2010 and 2012, CHN 2014 and 2016), the team who won the OG placed 3rd at the following WCH (BRA 2012 and 2014, CHN 2016 and 2018), the 2nd placed team at the OG won the following WCH (USA 2012 and 2014, SRB 2016 and 2018).


    If we follow this pattern, this time Italy will get the gold (2nd place in 2018) and Serbia will finish 3rd (1st place in 2018) 😶

    That might very well happen (though I personally doubt it), but it won't be because of trends on such a small sample.;)


    We should wait and see what kind of form the favourites show, but as of right now it's hard to see how China won't defend their gold from Rio.

    Btw, before the first game, I'll make a prediction about my team so that I can later claim with evidence that I called it.:P


    I'm fairly certain we can't beat China and USA, and we'll be underdogs against Italy as well. I'm only optimistic about chance against Turkey due to the problems they have had. So, I see 3 scenarios, from least to most optimistic:


    1)Not ending up the first in group, losing in quarters against one of CHI-USA-ITA

    2)First in group, ending up 4th

    3)First in group, beating Italy (3-2, of course:lol:) for the bronze


    Does anyone else want to make (realistic and honest) predictions about their own teams?

    Quote from wargirls

    I don’t know if someone else has said/noticed this before but I was looking at the previous WCH and OG winners and saw that since 2010: the second-placed team at the WCH won the following OG (BRA 2010 and 2012, CHN 2014 and 2016), the team who won the OG placed 3rd at the following WCH (BRA 2012 and 2014, CHN 2016 and 2018), the 2nd placed team at the OG won the following WCH (USA 2012 and 2014, SRB 2016 and 2018).


    If we follow this pattern, this time Italy will get the gold (2nd place in 2018) and Serbia will finish 3rd (1st place in 2018) 😶

    Brazil was also silver in WCH 2006 and Gold in London.


    I think that be the silver increase the desire of been the number one. When you are number one you come to a relax situation and at the same time more pressure situation on the field.



    America and Asia have been dominating the OG. I see Italy as top contender because of Egonu and the great team besides her.


    Serbia seems to me more weak than in Rio 2016.