Your argument is a joke. If NED is not going to make it, then that’s because they are not good enough. Are we supposed to base on last OGs as to which team should qualify? Then 12 teams should remain the same forever!
So by your logic Argentina is good enough but NED isn’t even though NED will almost certainly beat Arg every time they play each other? That’s not a fair assessment because one has a much easier path than the other, it’s not about who is good enough. If the continental qualifications were first then the intercontinental qualifications second, and NED didn’t qualify it would be fair to say they weren’t good enough, but in the current system you can’t conclude such a thing.