Posts by fan_of_volleybal

    Nice (long) post.

    But with so much compliments for Slovenia, could you now take a moment going back to your post in another thread where I mentioned Poland could think of Slovenia as a stronger opponent than France, and if so, the OGQ schedule Poland designed should not be thought of lacking sportsmanship (which was based on the assumption that France was stronger)?


    If you want to accuse others of something guilty, it's your responsibility to to show strong enough evidence beyond reasonable doubt. Now that Poland lost to Slovenia again, but beat France 3:0 in Paris, just 1.5 month after the OGQ, I believe it is within reasonable doubt whom Poland thought of as a stronger opponent when setting OGQ schedule. You can't convincingly exclude the possibility that Poland considered Slovenia stronger (as least as an opponent for Poland). So the "unsportsmanship" allegation cannot be convicted.

    Can anyone confirm if this grouping is right or not in knockout? It's from wiki, so I can not guarantee it's accurate.



    Strictly speaking, this is not 100% accurate.

    If Poland loses to Ukraine tomorrow, Netherlands will be D3 and Ukraine will be D2.

    Belgium is B2, but since two hosts are not allowed to meet in 1/8 or even in 1/4, we can't have Netherlands vs Belgium simply from "B2 vs D3", so the bracket will be adjusted somehow -- if it were to follow what happened in the women's tournament, it would become

    (Serbia vs Netherlands) vs (Ukraine vs Germany)

    (Poland vs B4) vs (Belgium vs D4)


    But probably no one would really believe Poland can lose to Ukraine...

    The Polish users here are getting ridiculous trying to justify the unjustifiable. Next, I expect them to take examples from the Middle Ages from the previous century in order to prove something that has little to do with what we discuss here. I don't know why Bulgaria was mentioned in the discussion, like Bulgaria had to do anything with the weekend in Poland, especially when we discuss global qualifiers, but I will have to intervene one last time.


    It has NOTHING to do with the discussion here whatsoever. First, Poland played Bulgaria almost 24 hours after the Iran match, giving them enough time to rest, taking into consideration the larger group. Second, Poland had a day off before the Iran match, so playing 2 teams on the same hour in 2 consecutive day should not be a problem, let alone at a WCH. Third, it was a group of 6 (!) teams playing over a span of more than a week, whereas here we have 4 teams playing over less than 3 days, for France even less than 48.


    You can take as many examples as you wish, nothing will beat what Poland are trying to do now. Bulgaria also had a nightmare schedule in the Berlin qualifiers 3 years ago, having to eventually play for 5 days in a row in case they had made it, yet they didn't and no one cared. I can also give you many examples with other teams, it doesn't mean it is right!

    I have been observing on this forum for a while but only post occasionally. I found two "rules".

    A. Whatever hot debate must end with YOUR long post. YOU must be the one with last "concluding" verdict.

    B. Whenever others use Bulgaria as a (negative) example, you would say that has nothing to do with the discussion.

    I would call it a lack of sportsmanship. This was mentioned by the French in the press conference, more specifically their representatives Laurent Tillie and Toniutti complained. France will have to play 3 Olympic qualifiers in a span of about 40 hours (their last match vs. Tunisia starts at 12 on Sunday!). The reason for that is clear, of course, but it brings questions as to where the limits of any organizer's freedom to do whatever they want should lie. I am curious what the reaction of the French on the court will be. Poland vs. France will probably be the highlight of the Intercontinental Qualification round.


    On a side note, taking the distribution in Pools C and D into account, at least one among Poland, France, Italy, and Serbia won't make it to Tokyo. We had a very similar outcome in Rio already, but it still feels strange and somewhat undeserved nevertheless.

    France does have grounds to complain, but I disagree with any claim of "lack of sportsmanship" against Poland on this. This claim is based on one presumption that "France is the strongest opponent of Poland", but what if Poland does believe Slovenia, not France, is their strongest opponent? Don't forget that Poland was eliminated by Slovenia in both ECh 2015 and 2017. Surely Poland also lost to France quite many times, but one can't say it's impossible for Poland to value the match vs Slovenia harder than vs France. After all, it's Poland's call regarding who they think is their strongest rival, and Poland definitely can have enough reasons to think either France or Slovenia is.


    Also, regarding the schedule, for a 3-day tournament over the weekend, it is understandable to have the Friday matches as late as possible and Sunday matches as early as possible. That's for the sake of the fans -- Friday as late as possible so that they can come to watch after work, Sunday as early as possible so that more non-local fans may return home by train after match, no need to spend one more night in hotel. So there comes a compact schedule.


    Then given this compact schedule, it's within the limit of host advantage for Poland to choose to play the 1st match of Friday and Saturday, and the 2nd match of Sunday. It's also very natural to choose the weakest one for the first match. Then, it's inevitable either France or Slovenia will get the poor schedule as France has now. If Poland switched France with Slovenia, maybe Slovenia will complain... or maybe some fans of Slovenia here can also "accuse" Poland for "lack of sportsmanship"...

    Maybe the math is correct but they forgot that USA is automatically qualified. :white:

    Even if USA were not automatically qualified and had to fight for a spot in final 6, USA right now still has chance to end up above Iran.

    In fact, even Canada has a remote chance.

    So their math is definitely incorrect... lol

    Yeah, it's so strange though, even the FIVB itself announce that Iran is the first team to go to the Chicago, How are they calculating mathematically ?! :sos:

    Considering BRA FRA ITA CAN will be in the same group, I was thinking whether all these related teams could end up above IRI. I did a math and logic game, and my conclusion is -- in theory the worst ranking of IRI could be #8, counting USA in as well.


    To "realize" this, assuming IRI got the worst result -- losing all 4 remaining matches, and got 0 point. That'll be 5 losses and 30 points total.


    CAN currently has 5 wins and 5 losses and 15 points , and needs all 5 wins with 15 points for all remaining 5 matches, including USA JPN FRA ITA and BRA. (their game vs USA is later today, maybe when you see my post, they already lost to USA, lol, but I'm talking about as of now). Then CAN would have same wins and points with IRI, and counting set ratio, there would be some cases (different combinations of 3-0 and 3-1) where CAN could be better than IRI.


    POL has deficit in points if they have tie with others in number of losses (too many 3-2 wins), so would have to win all remaining 4 matches (ITA, JPN, POR, GER), to have 4 losses only to be above IRI, but as long as they could win all 4, whether that's 3-2 or 3-0 doesn't matter.


    Now that CAN and POL both have to win all remaining, that means two more losses for ITA (to POL and CAN) already, so ITA has to beat BRA and FRA, then have 5 losses as well. But POL doesn't have to beat ITA in 4 sets. So if POL 3-2 ITA, and ITA beats BRA and FRA in 4 sets, ITA will collect 7 more points to have 31 points, 1 more point than IRI.


    Now that both ITA and CAN have to beat FRA, that'll also mean 2 more losses for FRA, but FRA just needs to beat IRI and BRA in 4 sets to collect 6 points, that'll also give FRA 5 losses in total and 31 points, 1 more point than IRI.


    Now that CAN, ITA, FRA all beat BRA, that'll mean 3 more losses for BRA, then as long as BRA beats RUS, BRA will have 4 losses in total.


    RUS definitely can afford one loss to BRA, since their last 3 opponents are AUS ARG and CHN.


    USA (yes, I know they qualified, but just do the math of ranking here...) just needs to beat CHN, SRB, IRI and BUL in 4 sets, losing to CAN, to have 5 losses as well, but also end up with 31 points.


    So in the scenario above, RUS has 3 losses, BRA and POL have 4 losses, FRA, ITA, USA have 5 losses but 31 points, CAN has 5 losses and 30 points, but can have slightly better set ratio than IRI. So IRI can rank 8th.


    FIVB needs a math teacher... lol

    Easy game with Australia. They made so much serve errors. Now just one more win to qualify for the F6 and i hope it will be vs France


    PS: Wiki says Iran is already qualified, but how is possible if Poland wins the rest of its matches while we lose it all ?


    Easy game with Australia. They made so much serve errors. Now just one more win to qualify for the F6 and i hope it will be vs France


    PS: Wiki says Iran is already qualified, but how is possible if Poland wins the rest of its matches while we lose it all ?

    Agree.

    In fact, in theory, not only Poland may surpass Iran, even Canada may surpass Iran, if Canada wins all remaining 5, and Iran loses all remaining 4...

    Though in reality, that's very unlikely...

    Yeah I think F6 is already secured but if we want to fight for a trophy Kolakovic MUST send the B team to the bulgaria for the last weekend. The main six players of Iran played nonstopsince the beginning of the VNL


    interesting choice by Sammelvuo. not starting with Kliuka, Volkov and Kurkaev, even though two of them came to play in the 3rd set but that was probably too late. Volkov made difference in the match though . I think his decision had something to do with the Olympic qualification and Iran/Russia being in the same group.


    I think Iran will be safe for final six with 2 more wins and we have to play Portugal and Australia at home next week. maybe finally Kolakovic can use his bench players for the last weekend in Bulgaria

    Not enough with only 2 more wins.


    Mathematically, even if Iran takes 3 wins next week with 3-0 including 3-0 France, there is still a remote chance Iran may miss F6 if they get 0-9 in the last week --


    Imagine if Poland takes all 3-0 in the last 6 matches (including 3-0 Italy), Russia loses to Brazil with whatever score, Brazil loses 0-3 to both Italy and France, and Italy loses 1-3 to France in addition to the 0-3 Poland. Then Russia and Brazil will both have one more win than Iran, France will have same wins but one more point than Iran, Poland will have same wins and points but slightly better set ratio (38/17 vs 35/16), and Italy will have same wins, points, set ratio with Iran, and comparing point ratio, anything can happen...


    Well, that's an extreme case just for mathematical exercise which would hardly happen. So if Iran really gets 3 3-0 next week, Iran is >99.9% in F6.


    But 3 3-0 is not easy especially considering the match against France. A more realistic result might be 3-0 Australia and Portugal, and 3-2 France, then as long as Poland takes 6 wins with 3-0 or 3-1, Poland will be over Iran with 1 more point if Iran lose all 3 matches in the last week with 0-3 or 1-3. After all, Poland 3-1 Italy is not impossible, and 3-1 other remaining 5 are more possible. And the room for other teams is larger.


    If Iran loses to France, and Poland beats Italy with whatever score, the door will be widely open, and Iran will have to send the regular starters to Bulgaria to fight for more wins and points to secure F6, since without them, Iran is a totally different team, hard to beat USA, Serbia, and even Bulgaria.


    So, too early to say secured F6 and rest the regular 6 starters yet.