Updated as of 09-18 12:15 UTC
With Iran and Japan winning in Asia. The cut line is basically set at 22. Cameroon will be outside the top 24 or in 24th and PR could finish as 24.
If Poland win one semifinal, the winner of the 3rd place match will get the 2nd Place position for Europe.
Mexico and Turkey were moved to locks but still playing group. More than 10 points ahead of Qatar and China, plus teams below them that are done playing, mean they are safe.
Egypt probably in with Bulgaria and Ukraine as buffers if Qatar and China win.
Bulgaria need a loss of Qatar or China to be safe. Taipei with loss today is probably more than 10 points behind and they probably could not pass Bulgaria with a win on Sunday.
Qatar win over Australia on Sunday and they are in. Lose and they will fall below Ukraine.
China needs to win over Taipei to be in. They are already below Ukraine on points, so they would be out.
Taipei might have to sweep China to have a chance, whether that will give them enough points. Plus needs a Qatar loss possibly.
Australia basically in same boat with Taipei, but must beat Qatar to have a chance, but also need Taipei to win.
At present with the updated version of qualifying (top 2 teams from each continent), host, world champions and then the top 12 teams.
Locks (regardless of finish in continental)
1. Russia (hosts, Ranking 3)
2. Brazil (CSV Champions, Ranking 1)
3. Poland (World Champions, Ranking 2)
4. France (Ranking 4)
5. Argentina (2nd Place CSV, Ranking 5)
6. USA (Ranking 7)
7. Iran (Asian Finalist, Ranking 10)
8. Japan (Asian Finalist, Ranking 11)
9. Canada (2nd Place NORCECA, Ranking 12)
10. Cuba (Ranking 13, 210)
11. Tunisia (African Champions, Ranking 14)
12. Netherlands (Ranking 15)
13. Germany (Ranking 16)
14. Puerto Rico (NORCECA Champions, Ranking 23)
15. Cameroon (2nd Place Africa, Ranking 25)
16. Europe Champions (Italy 6, Serbia 8, Slovenia 9)
17. Europe 2nd Place (Italy 6, Serbia 8, Slovenia 9)
Locks but still playing, and could be above, Red are done playing, Still playing
18. Italy (Ranking 6, 303) (1st/2nd Europe)
19. Serbia (Ranking 8, 286) (1st/2nd Europe)
20. Slovenia (Ranking 9, 278) (1st/2nd Europe)
21. Mexico 177
22. Turkey 169
Spots of Chaos (as ranking points are still moving), Red are done playing, Still playing
23. Egypt 167
24. Bulgaria 164
25. Qatar 158
26. Ukraine 157
-----CURRENT CUT LINE (2 berths in probably in)----
27. China 155
28. Belgium 150
29. Chinese Taipei 149
32. Chile 147
33. Australia 143
34. Finland 141
35. Czech Republilc 139
36. South Korea 137