You have to consider that Balkan matches are always unpredictable no matter the real value of the teams. Generally they finish on tie break.
When Turkey, Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia meet is always a surprise.
Serbia vs Slovenia in 2005 finished in tie break and Slovenia is not a great team. Yesterday Romania vs Croatia was tie break. Bulgaria vs Romania this year was in tie break, same as Turkey vs Serbia this year and last year.