Sarina Koga cut from Japanese roster for week 4
I don't want to overreact, but she went from untouchable -> to the bench -> to Home in three weeks. This is bad for her.
Maybe not. Maybe she has a small injury or a family matter.
Actually, Koga is in Thailand with the rest of the team, so there is a chance that she will return in week 5.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=umAkjZaa7jA Cr: SMMTVHD @ YT
Korea the same roster as in 3 week?
With the return of KYK and their 2 senior MBs Kim Su-Ji and Yang Hyo-Jin, the Korean team for week 4 in Thailand will most like be the same as week 1 & 2. The Korean team for week 5 will most like be the same as in week 3 and if not then it will be just one change to one of the younger players.
The F6 teams will most likely consist of China (host) and the current top 4 teams of USA, Brazil, Serbia and Netherlands. The last spot in the F6 will be a battle between Turkey (5th - 6w, 3l, 19pts), Russia (6th - 6w, 3l, 17pts) and Italy (7th - 4w, 5l, 14pts).
Between these 3 teams in week 4, Turkey overall will have the easier pool matches (Japan, Thailand, and Korea) compare to the other two teams whilst Russia is in week 4 Pool of Death #1 (USA, China, and Brazil) and Italy is in the Pool of Death #2 (Serbia, Netherlands, and Dominican Rep.).
In week 5, Russia will have overall the easier pool matches (Dominican Rep., Poland, and Japan), next is Italy's pool matches (Thailand, Belgium, and Brazil), and finally Turkey with the hardest overall pool matches (Netherlands, Germany, and China).
IMO, if each team starts with their strongest players and there are no upsets, then the favourite out of these three teams to make it to the F6 would be a 2 horses race between Turkey and Russia, with Turkey advancing. I'm sure most of you will agree to the following as likely to occur:
Week 4 - Turkey will have a great chance to win all 3 matches; Russia, on the other hand, might possibly lose all 3 pool matches; and Italy with 1 win & 2 losses.
Week 5 - Russia has a very good chance of winning all 3 matches; Italy with 2 wins & 1 loss; and Turkey winning 1 match and losing the other 2.
If my assumptions are correct, then Turkey will be the most likely to make the Finals with 10 wins & 5 losses, whilst Russia will be on 9 wins & 6 losses, and Italy with 7 wins & 8 losses. One unexpected loss or win can change which team goes to the finals.