Yeah, it's so strange though, even the FIVB itself announce that Iran is the first team to go to the Chicago, How are they calculating mathematically ?!
Considering BRA FRA ITA CAN will be in the same group, I was thinking whether all these related teams could end up above IRI. I did a math and logic game, and my conclusion is -- in theory the worst ranking of IRI could be #8, counting USA in as well.
To "realize" this, assuming IRI got the worst result -- losing all 4 remaining matches, and got 0 point. That'll be 5 losses and 30 points total.
CAN currently has 5 wins and 5 losses and 15 points , and needs all 5 wins with 15 points for all remaining 5 matches, including USA JPN FRA ITA and BRA. (their game vs USA is later today, maybe when you see my post, they already lost to USA, lol, but I'm talking about as of now). Then CAN would have same wins and points with IRI, and counting set ratio, there would be some cases (different combinations of 3-0 and 3-1) where CAN could be better than IRI.
POL has deficit in points if they have tie with others in number of losses (too many 3-2 wins), so would have to win all remaining 4 matches (ITA, JPN, POR, GER), to have 4 losses only to be above IRI, but as long as they could win all 4, whether that's 3-2 or 3-0 doesn't matter.
Now that CAN and POL both have to win all remaining, that means two more losses for ITA (to POL and CAN) already, so ITA has to beat BRA and FRA, then have 5 losses as well. But POL doesn't have to beat ITA in 4 sets. So if POL 3-2 ITA, and ITA beats BRA and FRA in 4 sets, ITA will collect 7 more points to have 31 points, 1 more point than IRI.
Now that both ITA and CAN have to beat FRA, that'll also mean 2 more losses for FRA, but FRA just needs to beat IRI and BRA in 4 sets to collect 6 points, that'll also give FRA 5 losses in total and 31 points, 1 more point than IRI.
Now that CAN, ITA, FRA all beat BRA, that'll mean 3 more losses for BRA, then as long as BRA beats RUS, BRA will have 4 losses in total.
RUS definitely can afford one loss to BRA, since their last 3 opponents are AUS ARG and CHN.
USA (yes, I know they qualified, but just do the math of ranking here...) just needs to beat CHN, SRB, IRI and BUL in 4 sets, losing to CAN, to have 5 losses as well, but also end up with 31 points.
So in the scenario above, RUS has 3 losses, BRA and POL have 4 losses, FRA, ITA, USA have 5 losses but 31 points, CAN has 5 losses and 30 points, but can have slightly better set ratio than IRI. So IRI can rank 8th.
FIVB needs a math teacher... lol